Style: Social Sciences
Writer: Joel Kotkin
Title: The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 (Purchase the Book)
- 1 Abstract
- 2 INTRODUCTION
- 3 NEXT MILLION
- 4 BASIC INFORMATION FROM AMERICA
- 5 ENERGY
- 6 DEMOGRAPHY 2050
- 7 CHALLENGES IN THE DEBATE OF 2001
- 8 CITIES EVOLUTION OF CITIES
- 9 LOS ANGELES MODEL
- 10 LUXURY CITY
- 11 PLAIN VANILLA
- 12 THE NEAR FUTURE
- 13 HEARTLAND
- 14 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
- 15 MULTIETIC AMERICA
- 16 21. Century AMERICA COMMUNITY
- 17 PÄÄTELMÄ
The United States is rising at a report degree. In accordance with probably the most conservative estimates, America is residence to four hundred million individuals in the mid-21st century, with more than 100 million individuals dwelling right here in the present day. Via in depth research and historic evaluation, writer Joel Kotkin reveals how this dramatic population progress will take form and why this enlargement is so essential for the longer term economic stability of the nation.
At a time when the UK's future is a strong pessimism States, Kotkin's subsequent hundred million: America in 2050 will overcome short-term difficulties and supply an optimistic forecast of a stronger and extra numerous individuals.
Although international inhabitants progress has slowed down in current many years, the USA has maintained steady population progress because of its high fertility price and large-scale immigration. Because of enlargement, america appears to be significantly totally different in 2050 than immediately. For instance, the demographics of the country see vital modifications. By 2050, there can be no clear "majority competition" resulting from variations in immigration and delivery rates.
In accordance with several forecasts, by the yr 2039, most People of working age are "minorities". it differs from many other developed nations which are much less receptive to immigration and stay ethnically homogenous. When the USA accepts extra immigrants, it’s better capable of counteract the consequences of inhabitants getting old and to stay youthful and more dynamic than many different developed nations.
The rising population additionally impacts how cities evolve as citizens manage their lives. Kotkin believes that in 2050 most American cities will comply with the "Los Angeles Model", whose economic and residential construction is scattered, slightly than the normal city mannequin of the cities of New York and Chicago.
He states that cities like LA and Phoenix have proven the strongest progress developments in current years and anticipate these developments to continue. Although densely populated residents are nonetheless extra dense "luxury cities", common People proceed to favor automobiles in public transport and need to stay in much less dense neighborhoods that provide the essential wants of excellent faculties and churches. as well as the center class financial alternatives at an inexpensive value of dwelling
This development in suburban life leads to the Renaissance in Heartland, an enormous, sparsely populated Midwest region. Because the development of telecommunications and transport makes the geographical proximity less enterprise, this primarily agricultural area will diversify economically and start to help a bigger proportion of the population.
Rural areas, which at the moment are white, are starting to appeal to extra immigrant households who comply with conventional values related to rural life. Attracting a more spacious and less congested way of life, individuals come to the bulk, and higher wages, a more productive business will comply with, making the region a serious middle in 2050. America
The United States has established land optimism. Even throughout nice melancholy, World Conflict II and different making an attempt occasions, the People believed in a vibrant future. Population progress in the coming many years will convey its personal challenges – together with the impression of useful resource depletion and human improvement on the worldwide local weather – however america is constant, as it all the time has the ingenuity, strong demographic structure and rich pure assets (including just lately exploitable power assets).
Along with the subsequent hundred million individuals, prosperous America requires responsive governments, well-designed communities, and above all households and individuals who need to benefit from opportunities to create a robust, vibrant financial system. Finally, the street to profitable America in 2050 is what Robert Bellah has referred to as America's "civil religion", its means to create a singular objective in the good variety of people and place
The United States is growing at a document degree. Based on probably the most conservative estimates, America is house to 4 hundred million individuals in the mid-21st century, with greater than a hundred million individuals dwelling right here at present. Via in depth research and historical evaluation, writer Joel Kotkin reveals how this dramatic population progress will take form and why this enlargement is so essential for the longer term financial stability of the nation.
At a time when the UK's future is a strong pessimism States, Kotkin's subsequent hundred million: America in 2050 will overcome short-term difficulties and provide an optimistic forecast of a stronger and more numerous individuals.
The New York Occasions has described America as an "uber geography", Joel Kotkin has devoted his career to researching economic, political and social tendencies. He is an honorable president in City Futures at Chapman College, a writer of six books, and writes a weekly "New Geographer" collection for Forbes.
The United States in 2050 seems to be a lot totally different in the early 2000s. Over 100 million individuals are creating new problems, forcing the current cities to adapt, and constructing new communities.
Demand for brand spanking new housing is rising considerably, particularly in new suburban areas and concrete areas
Environmentally friendly technologies and improved infrastructures are crucial to overcome the burden of this progress. Along with shaping geography, the inhabitants itself suffers from dramatic change. Most of America's progress till 2050 will probably be in the populations of racial minorities.
In the midst of the Middle Ages, America strikes from white to a number of races, ethnic and non secular groups. Based on Kotkin, this variation will make america probably the most numerous country in the world.
Some of the vital features of US progress is its capability to broaden in the midst of worldwide slowdown. World inhabitants progress was two % in the 1960s and has fallen to lower than half a %. This downward development is predicted to continue mainly because of the decline in start rates in creating nations
In accordance with some estimates, the world's inhabitants might already peak in 2050 and begin to say no by the top of the century. In contrast, America's excessive fertility and large-scale immigration proceed to result in population progress
BASIC INFORMATION FROM AMERICA
America's capability to depart from the rest of the world turns into its ingenuity, strong demographics and the most important and most efficient space of the world's arable lands. Throughout historical past, the USA has demonstrated its potential to adapt to economic challenges, from major melancholy to the current housing disaster.
American capitalism has created each monumental wealth and, as Kotkin said: World Historical past. “In his opinion, the pessimistic notion that the United States is a declining nation completely underestimates the American's proven ability to adapt throughout history.
As a global concern for global energy, America's enormous abundance of natural resources becomes a top priority. Although the belief in raw materials in rich America faded in the 1950s, when we became a net importer of raw materials, the United States continues to hold huge energy reserves.
Texas, Louisiana, Wyoming and other parts of the country have huge coal reserves. and other carbon-based energies. Recent large-scale natural gas surveys have increased future domestic energy sources and raised the idea that America could be energy-independent in the future.
Alternative forms of energy also play a key role in supporting the four hundred million countries, especially as energy technology improves. By 2030, ExxonMobil expects oil demand to fall by 22 percent, largely due to incentives for new energy sources
Recent estimates suggest that the United States is capable of producing 1.3 billion tonnes of biomass per year. up to 30% or more of current demand for transport fuels
America has no clear 'majority competition' by 2050. today it could rise to almost 50% in the mid-2000s. The growth of the Latino population is increasingly dependent on birth rates rather than immigration.
Today, due to the high birth rate, one in five American children under the age of five is a Hispanic.
This multi-racial growth is in stark contrast with many other developed countries that seem more resistant to immigration. Chinese, Japanese, and Korean cultures are particularly unlikely to be exposed to large-scale immigration, even though their workforce "would have to go to walkers and wheelchairs."
The United States is also coping with the aging population, but Kotkin argues that it remains relatively young and dynamic due to immigration and increased diversity.
CHALLENGES IN THE DEBATE OF 2001
In a globalized society, knowledge and knowledge tend to create broader class divisions. This has led to increased mobility, especially for those with limited access to quality education. A key factor in increasing the income gap is the significant difference in the quality of education for poor and wealthy regions
According to Kotkin, the most challenging challenge for the United States in the coming decades is to maintain the outlook for mobility. Historically, the American population has believed in the idea that success is ultimately in their hands.
This idea has promoted the nation's ability to stay through economic anxiety and be critical as the population grows. Prospects for success could be particularly acute among young workers who have been greatly affected by the recent recession
CITIES EVOLUTION OF CITIES
New American cities have led to population growth, technical improvements and wealthy citizens who could afford to buy cars and homes. The younger American population has led to suburban development and single-family homes.
According to Kotkin, most of the urban growth is taking place in Houston, Los Angeles and Phoenix as parents, traditional cities like New York and Chicago. The "Los Angeles Model", as Kotkin calls it, is the power of most of the new growth in its multi-polar, independent and geographically great character.
LOS ANGELES MODEL
Los Angeles, with a fragmented economic and residential structure, often described by urban theorists as "anti-city". Kotki suggests that cities following the LA model live in new urban growth. Such cities, created from a collection of rural suburbs, are an essential change in urban development
We are unlikely to see future New Yorks or Chicago with thriving centers, skyscrapers, and high-rise apartment extensions. Los Angeles rejected the traditional urban model that replaced it with smaller subcontractors
Although Los Angeles has recently struggled with rising land and housing costs, cities like Phoenix and Houston accepted the model and pulled ambitious newcomers looking for a better life. The center of these cities plays a relatively small role; less than 3% of all LA and Phoenix employees work in the downtown area, while in New York and Washington DC it is 20%
. Thinkers lack style and culture. However, as new telecommunication and transport technologies develop, economic, cultural and demographic centers will be meaningless in industrial urban areas.
The lack of a central urban core does not mean that the new cities will simply become communities of suburban collections. Phoenix and others, like it, have adopted a multi-polar approach with a number of dense, vital centers.
Although less concentrated design means that many residents travel to work in the car instead of using public transport or walking, Phoenix, Houston, Atlanta and even Los Angeles have shorter average working hours than more transit cities like New York and Chicago.
The increase in Los Angeles-style aspirations does not mean that the traditional city is becoming obsolete. The second urban model, called Wharton's Joe Gyourko's "superstar city", is likely to develop by 2050. These cities are not the engines of opportunity but rather live for those who are already sitting at the "top of society".
urban areas can still offer mobility up to those with education, wealth and connections so that they can stay there; but mostly middle and working classes are unable to improve their living standards. Kotkin notes that a person who earns $ 50,000 in Houston needs $ 115,769 in Manhattan to achieve the same level of comfort. Because of this extraordinary cost of living, these luxury cities have seen the continuous loss of middle and working families, especially young children
Unlike some urban theorists, Kotkin claims that cities cannot succeed in the hope that "empty nests" cannot succeed or the high energy prices will force the Americans back into their inner cities. Nor can they succeed in what he refers to the "glamor zone" economies based on art, culture and high technology.
Most people move for relatively simple reasons: appropriate work, a decent school, closeness to relatives, and a safe neighborhood. These priorities are likely to remain the same, even if there are changes in the coming decades. In order to increase growth in forty years, cities need residential areas with more "ordinary vanilla" trees, an attractive but low-priced shopping street and comfortable apartments or apartments.
is to create economic opportunities for residents while preserving the basics of middle class life: good schools, safe streets and flourishing churches.
THE NEAR FUTURE
Future neighborhoods are trying to break the traditional boundaries of urban and rural settings. Located in California, Valencia was based on this residence, where residential buildings have survived in a natural environment, and a thriving city center.
Planned communities like Valencia represent one economically, socially and environmentally sustainable way to adapt to the next hundreds of millions of Americans. Such suburban development is still worrying.
The effects of the recent economic crisis and residential building on suburban growth increased fears about the longevity of cities like Valencia. However, historical trends favor neighborhoods that on average remain more prosperous than cities. In fact, in the 1990s, the growth of suburban income per capita was twice as high as in cities
The move to suburbs is mainly due to the American desire to live in a less densely populated area
. According to the National Association of Realtors, 83% of potential buyers want one family home. Suburbs offer affordable housing and reduce crime and less traffic. The future generations of Americans live in suburbs as they represent the best and most practical alternative to raising their families and enjoying the interests of the community.
Among the world's more developed countries, America has the greatest potential for land and resources. The vast, sparsely populated American Heartland, located in the Midwestern United States, makes up the majority of this country.
The nation's population rises to four hundred million, Heartland inevitably represents the great opportunity of the 21st century. While agriculture remains an important part of its economy, high-tech services, communications, energy production, manufacturing and stocks are critical sources of employment and prosperity
LAND AND NATURAL RESOURCES
Heartland is a vital part of adapting growth in the 21st century. In recent years, environmentalists have expressed concern that urban sprawl and suburban development in Heartland would stifle agriculture and force resources. Although America has suffered from some of the arable land in the last 30 years, the amount of land used to grow crops has remained stable
In order to save funds and meet the needs of the growing population, the United States needs to switch to new fuels. Switching to alternative forms of energy would create jobs and reduce our dependence on imported fuels and chemicals.
Also, the slowdown or even reversal of capital flows to the often hostile oil-based countries of the Middle East would help to increase national security. In addition to biofuels, America is counting on wind-proof energy in the future. Great Plains is called "wind Saudi Arabia", which has enough wind power only in North Dakota to provide 20% of the country's electricity needs.
THE FUTURE OF HEARTLAND
As technology evolves in telecommunications and transport, Heartland moves purely from the food and fuel economy. The Internet has significantly reduced the historical monopoly of the big city in terms of information.
A Heartland-based farmer, securities trader, engineer or software designer has virtually the same access to the latest market data and technical information as someone in Manhattan or Silicon Valley. As the area evolves, this access could give individuals and businesses the opportunity to take advantage of land availability and low cost of living
Many rural areas consider traditional values of family, religion and independence as examples. adequacy. These perceptions suggest that there is a large proportion of the population that would consider moving to Heartland in the near future
Much of this growth could come as a result of immigration
Although Heartland has historically been the country's wider demographic change, it has not greatly affected the region now a new immigration wave that has transformed some rural areas, such as Finney County, Kansas, into 'majority, minority' areas. From an economic point of view, immigration has transformed dying places into life.
Lexington, Nebraska saw a recovery in the 1990s, when much of his Latin-American migration took place and turned into a major census for years. Although Heartland is still largely white, the area is rapidly becoming more diverse and is likely to move further towards the vitality of the population that is more associated with urbanized areas.
Unlike the old industry standard, where jobs are grouped into densely populated areas, economic growth is now shifting towards less dense regions. Much of this is due to the "de-clustering" of traditional urban centers, such as the Silicon Valley of California and New York, to less dense, more expensive areas such as Sioux Falls, Des Moines and Fargo. This trend is evident from the fact that between 1961 and 1996, American jobs in densely populated areas fell from 84 percent to 66 percent
The ability of the Heartland economies to achieve high-wage sectors such as Business Services, Finance, and Logistics are crucial to job growth in the region . Less densely populated, less expensive and more business-friendly places can encourage businesses and individuals to move from traditional centers
As industrial work becomes more productive and fewer jobs, the Heartland economy will be more dependent on changes in the sector of employees and industries in the information sector
One major trend New England researcher Amy Zuckerman has called "hidden technology", the increasing concentrations of technical workers in different metropolitan areas. Although rural America is often seen as a lack of skilled labor, the Great Plains and New England non-metropolitan areas are experiencing a "surplus" of skills, the core of which consists of highly educated young people.
Students in Nebraska, Dakota, Montana and Idaho usually work better than metropolitan areas. That's why Heartland has the opportunity to become a "brain zone" of the 21st century
All in all, Heartland can provide an expanded population with the opportunity to enjoy a more spacious and less congested life than can be found or readily available in major cities. As technology evolves, Heartland becomes more and more geographically isolated.
It provides companies with new places to produce competitive products and services and serves as a starting point for developing the creative and entrepreneurial skills of a growing population.
The fate of America and other Western countries depends on their ability to welcome people from outside Europe throughout the 21st century. According to Kotkin, the United States, Canada, Australia, Great Britain, Germany and France, not everyone has sufficient birth rates for European decent children so that they cannot become "grandmothers of the grandmother" by 2050. Successful immigration is crucial to maintaining youthful energy
Although Europe has received as many immigrants as the United States in recent decades, it has proved to be far less capable of receiving them.
Immigrants from European countries can benefit more easily than they can join a labor force that promotes increasing economic segregation. In France, the unemployment rate of immigrants is often twice as high as that of those born in Finland.
On the other hand, in the United States, immigrants with a lower level of education tend to work more than their strangers. Usually, the American integration process has proved to be more successful than Europe in the last century.
America's overall reception capacity for immigrants and the belief that national identity crosses race or religion is a critical difference between it and other developed countries. Immigration has accelerated in America, especially since September 11, which boosted the urgency of immigrants to tighten immigration policy
In fact, in 2005, the United States swore more citizens than the next nine countries. Most of the immigrants, both undocumented and legal, originate from developing countries: China, India, Mexico, the Philippines and the Middle East. According to several forecasts, by 2039, the majority of Americans of working age are "minorities", largely due to immigrants and their descendants. Most demographers agree that by 2050, if not before, non-Latin Americans are in a minority
NEW GEOGRAPHY OF THE PROPOSAL
Although immigrants continue to play a key role in urban areas, minority groups are also relocated by displacing companies to the geographical boundaries of large cities. In the first decade of the 21st century, immigrants decided to live in suburban homes, which are roughly equivalent to those born in Finland.
Much of this movement is due to rising housing costs and the desire to increase space for employment. The neighborhoods that urban theorists often explain about their unity and homogeneity are becoming the new melting pot of American society.
In the middle decades, suburbs, suburbs and smaller communities have more ethnic blends than cities that prevailed at the turn of the century. These remote areas bring out American diversity, as well as large cities once.
Although the immigrant base is growing, English is still a key language even in the heavy communities of immigrants. Ninety percent of Latino high school graduates prefer English and Spanish, and only 7 percent of immigrant children speak Spanish as their primary language.
Latino parents even start giving their children Anglo names according to a 2009 Pew Hispanic Center study. In future generations, bilingualism is expected to continue to decline. Effective integration of immigrants is reflected in English's sustainable dominance in America and increases what Kotkin calls "hybridization" of minorities and Anglos
21. Century AMERICA COMMUNITY
Our nation manages the next hundreds of millions of inhabitants The development of families, neighborhoods and communities is becoming increasingly important. America faces different challenges than the generally homogeneous and aging cultures in Europe and East Asia, when the population is scattered and more diverse than other developed countries.
Social Networking and Immediate Messaging and other forms of technology have begun to replace and complement traditional school, church, synagogue and club community adhesives. These new technologies can bring Americans closer to each other by facilitating integration, such as helping children with homework or coping with illness or other changes in life.
Many City districts around the country have set up networks that allow residents to communicate and interact. Information about new stores, crime threats, and other announcements spreads much faster and easier.
FAMILIES AND COMMUNITIES
Although many unite individual individuals with prosperity, married children are usually more successful and motivated. According to the 2000 census, they are twice as likely to earn 20 percent of earnings, and earnings will rise significantly faster than the country average.
According to Kotkin, families are supposed to promote economic growth and be a priority for our community investment. In the coming decades, expanding broadband communications and teleconferencing will allow families to work more from home. This process will be speeded up as car travel costs increase. Moving to Home Work creates new opportunities to find a balance between productive work and family life. In America, it has largely turned around for religion. According to the Pew Global Attitudes survey, about 60% of Americans believe that religion is "very important", double to Canadians, British, Korean or Italian, and six times to French or Japanese.
Many secular Americans, especially within the academic groups of urban centers, reject the qualifications of religious groups, preferring to imitate European secularism
Sociologist Phil Zuckerman argues that European secularism has weakened the need for religious institutions at its high level of social development, welfare protection and low crime rates . Over time, religious effects are unlikely to fall because spiritual humans are more likely to have offspring than non-believers.
Models of Religious Commitment in the United States continue to change throughout the 21st century. Jews, Muslims, Buddhists and Hindus are now recognized participants in the spiritual life of our nation. In fact, America today has more Muslims than Episcopalists.
Jopa tämän monimuotoisuuden joukossa kristinusko on edelleen maan hallitseva uskonto. Viimeisten viidenkymmenen vuoden aikana Yhdysvallat on lisännyt arviolta sadan miljoonan kristityn, joka on yhtä suuri kuin maan ensimmäiset kaksisataa vuotta.
Yhdysvallat on maa, joka perustuu optimismi. Jopa suuren masennuksen, toisen maailmansodan ja muiden yrittävien aikojen aikana amerikkalaiset pitivät luottamusta valoisaan tulevaisuuteen. Viime aikoina taantumiin liittyvien taistelujen keskellä kansakunnan tulevaisuutta koskevat akateemiset ja journalistiset ennusteet ovat olleet yhä pessimistisempiä
Vaikka nämä synkät ennusteet voivat toimia esteinä itsetyytyväisyydelle, Kotkin uskoo, että Amerikan ainutlaatuinen yhdistelmä korkea hedelmällisyyttä, suurta monimuotoisuutta ja valtava fyysinen omaisuus kasvaa tulevaisuudessa. In stark contrast to China and Japan, America’s population of working-age and young people is expected to continue upward, further propelling economic growth.
While concerns over resource depletion and the impact of human development on global climate should be considered and used to inform future policies, attempts to quickly reduce the carbon footprint could have negative economic implications.
With a rapidly expanding population and limited economic growth, Americans would have to accept a significant decline in their standards of living. Communities, notably suburbs, will need to be designed with ecological and social sustainability in mind.
A diverse, multiracial population will continue to develop throughout the 21st century. Future generations will likely see race diminish as an indicator of economic prosperity. Instead of race, the most pressing social problem facing America in 2050 will be class.
Maintaining the prospect of upward mobility will be crucial in the survival of the middle class. Americans tend to believe their efforts can lead to a better life; destroying these aspirations with stagnant wage growth could be devastating to the economy.
With the addition of the next hundred million people, a prosperous America will require responsive governments, well planned communities, and most importantly, families and individuals willing to take advantage of opportunities in order to create a strong, vibrant economy. Ultimately, the path to a successful America in 2050 lies in what Robert Bellah has called America’s “civil religion,” its potential to forge a singular objective amid great variety of people and place.
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